As major mining rig manufacturers start to introduce their latest offerings in the latter half of 2023, the crypto mining industry is buzzing with excitement. Canaan unveiled its new miner, the A1466I, in Singapore on September 12, with an energy efficiency ratio of 19.5 J/T. Right after Canaan, BITMAIN launched two models from the S21 series at WDMS 2023 in Hong Kong on September 22, with energy efficiency ratios of 17.5 J/T and 16 J/T, respectively. Not to be outdone, MicroBT, a BTC mining rig manufacturer, revealed the details of its M60 series at a blockchain event in Dubai on October 24, with all models featuring energy efficiency ratios below 20 J/T.

As of this writing, we are 174 days away from the next BTC halving. The three major mining rig manufacturers have all launched new models with energy efficiency ratios below 20 J/T, and their intentions are clear: to capture a larger market share during the next halving with more efficient mining rigs.

BTC Halving Explained
BTC halving is a pre-determined event that occurs approximately every four years or after every 210,000 blocks until the total supply of BTC reaches 21 million. Although Satoshi Nakamoto, the father of Bitcoin, did not explicitly explain the reasons behind the halving mechanism, it is widely speculated that the initial 50 BTC reward was designed to incentivize miners to quickly join the network and mine new blocks, enabling fast market circulation

The first BTC halving occurred on November 28, 2012, reducing the block reward from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. At the time, the BTC price hovered around $12, and within a year, it surged by nearly 9,000%.

The second halving took place on July 10, 2016, slashing the reward from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. Following the second halving, the BTC price plummeted to $650, but by December 2017, the figure reached an all-time high of about $19,700, a jump of almost 3,000%.

The third BTC halving, which happened on May 12, 2020, lowered the reward from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. Back then, the BTC price fluctuated around $10,000. By November 2021, the price reached a record high of nearly $69,000, a 590% increase.

The three blue lines correspond to the three halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020.

Historically, whenever Bitcoin enters a halving cycle, its price always rises, followed by a new bull market, although multiple drastic corrections can occur during this process. Investors focus on the BTC halving because it reduces Bitcoin’s daily supply, which reshapes the supply and demand dynamics. As an asset becomes scarcer, its demand rises, which then drives up its value. This is why Bitcoin miners are keen on purchasing mining rigs in advance to position themselves for the halving, and the current costs of mining rigs are cheaper than the post-halving prices.

Profitability of New ASIC Mining Rigs
We can assess the profitability of new mining rigs released by manufacturers with the Profit Calculator, a tool provided by ViaBTC Pool. Let’s assume the electricity cost to be $0.05 per kWh, based on data recorded on November 1 (BTC price: $34,462.45 & network difficulty: 62.46 T), we can get the following results:

Source: https://www.viabtc.com/tools/calculator

MicroBT’s Latest ASIC Miners (to provide you with a brief overview, only a selected few will be introduced):

WhatsMiner M63S (390T)
Rated hashrate: 390 TH/s
Rated power: 7,215W
Official price: $10,530
Daily profit: $27.55 (daily revenue) - $8.66 (electricity cost) = $18.89
Payback period: $10,530/$18.89 = 557 days

WhatsMiner M63 (366T)
Rated hashrate: 366 TH/s
Rated power: 7,283.4W
Official price: $9,150
Daily profit: $25.86 (daily revenue) - $8.74 (electricity cost) = $17.12
Payback period: $9,150/$17.12 = 534 days

WhatsMiner M66S (298T)
Rated hashrate: 298 TH/s
Rated power: 5,513W
Official price: $8,046
Daily profit: $21.05 (daily revenue) - $6.62 (electricity cost) = $14.43
Payback period: $8,046/$14.43 = 558 days

WhatsMiner M66 (280T)
Rated hashrate: 280 TH/s
Rated power: 5,572W
Official price: $7,000
Daily profit: $19.78 (daily revenue) - $6.69 (electricity cost) = $13.09
Payback period: $7,000/$13.09 = 535 days

BITMAIN’s Latest ASIC Miners

Antminer S21 Hyd.
Rated hashrate: 335 TH/s
Rated power: 5,360W
Official price: $11,725 (with the 30% discount offered on BITMAIN’s official website, the model is currently priced at $8,207.5)
Daily profit: $23.67 (daily revenue) - $6.43 (electricity cost) = $17.24
Payback period: $8,207.5/$17.24 = 476 days

Antminer S21
Rated hashrate: 200 TH/s
Rated power: 3,500W
Official price: $7,000 (with the 30% discount offered on BITMAIN’s official website, the model is currently priced at $4,900)
Daily profit: $14.13 (daily revenue) - $4.20 (electricity cost) = $9.93
Payback period: $4,900/$9.93 = 476 days

Canaan’s Latest ASIC Miners

Avalon A1466I
Rated hashrate: 170 TH/s
Rated power: 3,315W
Third-party price: $3,699
Daily profit: $12.01 (daily revenue) - $3.98 (electricity cost) = $8.03
Payback period: $3,699/$8.03 = 461 days

It should be noted that the above results are theoretical figures and do not account for price swings or difficulty adjustments.

Who Will Be the Biggest Winner of BTC Halving?
As the Bitcoin halving approaches, we wonder who will be the biggest winner. Will it be holders, miners, mining rig manufacturers, or mining pool operators? If, as expected by many, the BTC price continues to surge, possibly surpassing previous peaks, all stakeholders stand to profit and can be considered winners.

However, the Bitcoin halving comes with both risks and opportunities. If the price falls short of market expectations, or if the price plummets due to an unexpected black swan event, coupled with the impact of the halved block reward, most mainstream mining rigs may approach their shutdown prices. This will trigger a domino reaction. Miners who invested heavily in mining rigs before the halving will face a rough start, with a prolonged payback period.

In summary, the next Bitcoin halving will definitely happen and is expected to occur around April 24, 2024. The halving mechanism benefits Bitcoin by preserving its scarcity and value. It allows people to have faith in the coin’s long-term prospects. Unlike the speculators out there, Bitcoin miners believe in the long-term value of BTC. The next bull market is just on the horizon, as long as miners maintain their confidence and consensus.

*The article offers no financial advice.